marketing-analytics/predicting/future-customer-value-segments/fcvs_pipeline_bq.py (538 lines of code) (raw):

# Copyright 2021 Google LLC # # Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License"); # you may not use this file except in compliance with the License. # You may obtain a copy of the License at # # http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0 # # Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software # distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS, # WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied. # See the License for the specific language governing permissions and # limitations under the License. import argparse import logging import operator import apache_beam as beam from apache_beam import io from apache_beam import pvalue from apache_beam.options import pipeline_options from apache_beam.options import value_provider from apache_beam.transforms import util import bigquery_mod as bq_mod import common as c class RuntimeOptions(pipeline_options.PipelineOptions): """Specifies runtime options for the pipeline. Class defining the arguments that can be passed to the pipeline to customize the execution. """ @classmethod def _add_argparse_args(cls, parser): parser.add_value_provider_argument(f'--{c._OPTION_INPUT_BQ_QUERY}') parser.add_value_provider_argument(f'--{c._OPTION_INPUT_BQ_PROJECT}') parser.add_value_provider_argument(f'--{c._OPTION_TEMP_GCS_LOCATION}') parser.add_value_provider_argument(f'--{c._OPTION_OUTPUT_FOLDER}') parser.add_value_provider_argument(f'--{c._OPTION_OUTPUT_BQ_PROJECT}') parser.add_value_provider_argument(f'--{c._OPTION_OUTPUT_BQ_DATASET}') parser.add_value_provider_argument( f'--{c._OPTION_CUSTOMER_ID_COLUMN_NAME}') parser.add_value_provider_argument( f'--{c._OPTION_TRANSACTION_DATE_COLUMN_NAME}') parser.add_value_provider_argument( f'--{c._OPTION_SALES_COLUMN_NAME}') parser.add_value_provider_argument( f'--{c._OPTION_EXTRA_DIMENSION_COLUMN_NAME}') parser.add_value_provider_argument(f'--{c._OPTION_DATE_PARSING_PATTERN}') parser.add_value_provider_argument( f'--{c._OPTION_MODEL_TIME_GRANULARITY}', default=c.TimeGranularityParams.GRANULARITY_WEEKLY) parser.add_value_provider_argument( f'--{c._OPTION_FREQUENCY_MODEL_TYPE}', default=c._MODEL_TYPE_MBGNBD) parser.add_value_provider_argument( f'--{c._OPTION_CALIBRATION_START_DATE}') parser.add_value_provider_argument(f'--{c._OPTION_CALIBRATION_END_DATE}') parser.add_value_provider_argument(f'--{c._OPTION_COHORT_START_DATE}') parser.add_value_provider_argument(f'--{c._OPTION_COHORT_END_DATE}') parser.add_value_provider_argument(f'--{c._OPTION_HOLDOUT_END_DATE}') parser.add_value_provider_argument( f'--{c._OPTION_PREDICTION_PERIOD}', default=52, type=int) parser.add_value_provider_argument( f'--{c._OPTION_OUTPUT_SEGMENTS}', default=5, type=int) parser.add_value_provider_argument( f'--{c._OPTION_TRANSACTION_FREQUENCY_THRESHOLD}', default=15, type=int) parser.add_value_provider_argument( f'--{c._OPTION_PENALIZER_COEF}', default=0.0, type=float) parser.add_value_provider_argument( f'--{c._OPTION_ROUND_NUMBERS}', default="False") def run(argv=None): """Main function. Main function containing the Apache Beam pipeline describing how to process the input CSV file to generate the LTV predictions. """ parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() _, pipeline_args = parser.parse_known_args(argv) options = pipeline_options.PipelineOptions(pipeline_args) runtime_options = options.view_as(RuntimeOptions) with beam.Pipeline(options=options) as pipeline: options = ( pipeline | 'Create single element Stream containing options dict' >> beam.Create([options.get_all_options()]) | beam.Map(lambda x: { k: v.get() if isinstance(v, value_provider.ValueProvider) else v for (k, v) in x.items() }) | beam.Map(c.set_extra_options) ) full_elog = ( pipeline | bq_mod.ReadFromBigQuery( project=getattr(runtime_options, c._OPTION_INPUT_BQ_PROJECT), query=getattr(runtime_options, c._OPTION_INPUT_BQ_QUERY), gcs_location=getattr(runtime_options, c._OPTION_TEMP_GCS_LOCATION), use_standard_sql=True, priority='BATCH' ) | beam.FlatMap( c.bq_row_to_list, pvalue.AsSingleton(options)) # (customer_id, date_str, date, # sales, extra_dimension?) ) full_elog_merged = ( full_elog | beam.Filter(lambda x: x[3] > 0) # sales > 0 | beam.Map(lambda x: ((x[0], x[1]), x)) # key: (customer_id, date) | 'Group full elog by customer and date' >> beam.GroupByKey() | beam.Map(c.merge_full_elog_by_customer_and_date) # (customer_id, # date_str, date, # sales) ) min_max_dates = ( full_elog_merged | beam.Map(lambda x: x[2]) # date | beam.CombineGlobally(c.MinMaxDatesFn()) | beam.Map(c.min_max_dates_dict) ) limits_dates = ( min_max_dates | beam.FlatMap(c.limit_dates_boundaries, pvalue.AsSingleton(options)) ) cohort = ( full_elog_merged | beam.FlatMap(c.filter_customers_in_cohort, pvalue.AsSingleton(limits_dates)) | 'Distinct Customer IDs in Cohort' >> util.Distinct() ) cohort_count = ( cohort | 'Count cohort entries' >> beam.combiners.Count.Globally() ) cohort_set = ( cohort | beam.Map(lambda x: (x, 1)) ) all_customer_ids = ( full_elog_merged | beam.Map(lambda x: x[0]) # key: customer_id | 'Distinct all Customer IDs' >> util.Distinct() ) all_customer_ids_count = ( all_customer_ids | 'Count all customers' >> beam.combiners.Count.Globally() ) num_customers = ( pipeline | 'Create single elem Stream I' >> beam.Create([1]) | beam.FlatMap(c.count_customers, pvalue.AsSingleton(cohort_count), pvalue.AsSingleton(all_customer_ids_count), pvalue.AsSingleton(options)) ) cal_hol_elog = ( full_elog_merged | beam.FlatMap(c.filter_cohort_records_in_cal_hol, pvalue.AsDict(cohort_set), pvalue.AsSingleton(limits_dates)) ) cal_hol_elog_count = ( cal_hol_elog | 'Count cal hol elog entries' >> beam.combiners.Count.Globally() ) calibration = ( cal_hol_elog | beam.FlatMap(c.filter_records_in_calibration, pvalue.AsSingleton(limits_dates)) ) num_txns_total = ( full_elog_merged | beam.FlatMap(c.filter_records_in_cal_hol, pvalue.AsSingleton(limits_dates)) | 'Count num txns total' >> beam.combiners.Count.Globally() ) num_txns = ( pipeline | 'Create single elem Stream II' >> beam.Create([1]) | beam.FlatMap(c.count_txns, pvalue.AsSingleton(cal_hol_elog_count), pvalue.AsSingleton(num_txns_total), pvalue.AsSingleton(options)) ) calcbs = ( calibration | beam.Map(lambda x: (x[0], x)) | 'Group calibration elog by customer id' >> beam.GroupByKey() | beam.FlatMap( c.create_cal_cbs, pvalue.AsSingleton(options), pvalue.AsSingleton(limits_dates) ) # (customer_id, number_of_transactions, average_order_value, # frequency, recency, total_time_observed) ) first_transaction_dates_by_customer = ( cal_hol_elog | beam.Map(lambda x: (x[0], x)) # customer_id | 'Group cal hol elog by customer id' >> beam.GroupByKey() | beam.Map(lambda x: (x[0], min(map(operator.itemgetter(2), x[1]))) ) # item 2 -> date ) cal_hol_elog_repeat = ( cal_hol_elog | beam.FlatMap(c.filter_first_transaction_date_records, pvalue.AsDict(first_transaction_dates_by_customer)) | beam.FlatMap( c.calculate_time_unit_numbers, # (customer_id, date, # time_unit_number) pvalue.AsSingleton(options), pvalue.AsSingleton(limits_dates)) | beam.Map(lambda x: (x[2], 1)) # key: time_unit_number | 'Group cal hol elog repeat by time unit number' >> beam.GroupByKey() | beam.Map(lambda x: (x[0], sum(x[1])) ) # (time_unit_number, occurrences) ) repeat_tx = ( pipeline | 'Create single elem Stream III' >> beam.Create([1]) | beam.FlatMap(c.calculate_cumulative_repeat_transactions, pvalue.AsIter(cal_hol_elog_repeat) ) # (time_unit_number, repeat_transactions, # repeat_transactions_cumulative) ) model_validation = ( pipeline | 'Create single elem Stream IV' >> beam.Create([1]) | beam.FlatMap(c.calculate_model_fit_validation, pvalue.AsSingleton(options), pvalue.AsSingleton(limits_dates), pvalue.AsIter(calcbs), pvalue.AsIter(repeat_tx), pvalue.AsSingleton(num_customers), pvalue.AsSingleton(num_txns)) ) _ = ( model_validation | beam.Map(c.raise_error_if_invalid_mape) ) _ = ( model_validation | beam.Map(lambda x: x[0]) | 'Write to validation_params table' >> io.WriteToBigQuery( table=c.TableValueProvider( getattr(runtime_options, c._OPTION_OUTPUT_BQ_PROJECT), getattr(runtime_options, c._OPTION_OUTPUT_BQ_DATASET), 'validation_params' ), custom_gcs_temp_location=getattr(runtime_options, c._OPTION_TEMP_GCS_LOCATION), validate=False, schema={ 'fields': [ {'name': 'calibration_start_date', 'type': 'STRING'}, {'name': 'calibration_end_date', 'type': 'STRING'}, {'name': 'cohort_start_date', 'type': 'STRING'}, {'name': 'cohort_end_date', 'type': 'STRING'}, {'name': 'holdout_end_date', 'type': 'STRING'}, {'name': 'model_time_granularity', 'type': 'STRING'}, {'name': 'model', 'type': 'RECORD', 'fields': [ {'name': 'frequency_model', 'type': 'STRING'}, {'name': 'num_customers_cohort', 'type': 'INTEGER'}, {'name': 'perc_customers_cohort', 'type': 'FLOAT'}, {'name': 'num_transactions_validation', 'type': 'INTEGER'}, {'name': 'perc_transactions_validation', 'type': 'FLOAT'}, {'name': 'validation_mape', 'type': 'STRING'}, ]} ] }, write_disposition=io.BigQueryDisposition.WRITE_TRUNCATE, create_disposition=io.BigQueryDisposition.CREATE_IF_NEEDED) ) fullcbs_without_extra_dimension = ( full_elog_merged | beam.Map(lambda x: (x[0], x)) # key: customer_id | 'Group full merged elog by customer id' >> beam.GroupByKey() | beam.FlatMap( c.create_fullcbs, pvalue.AsSingleton(options), pvalue.AsSingleton(min_max_dates) ) # (customer_id, number_of_transactions, historical_aov, # frequency, recency, total_time_observed) ) full_elog_if_extra_dimension = ( full_elog | 'Discard records if no extra dimension' >> beam.FlatMap( c.discard_if_no_extra_dimension, pvalue.AsSingleton(options)) ) extra_dimensions_stats = ( full_elog_if_extra_dimension | beam.Map(lambda x: ((x[0], x[4]), x) ) # key: (customer_id, extra_dimension) | 'Group full elog by customer id and extra dimension' >> beam.GroupByKey() | beam.Map( c.create_extra_dimensions_stats ) # (customer_id, extra_dimension, dimension_count, tot_sales, # max_dimension_date) ) top_dimension_per_customer = ( extra_dimensions_stats | beam.Map(lambda x: (x[0], x)) # customer_id | 'Group extra dimension stats by customer id' >> beam.GroupByKey() | beam.Map( c.extract_top_extra_dimension ) # (customer_id, extra_dimension, dimension_count, tot_sales, # max_dimension_date) ) customer_dimension_map = ( top_dimension_per_customer | beam.Map( lambda x: (x[0], x[1])) # (customer_id, extra_dimension) ) prediction = ( pipeline | 'Create single elem Stream V' >> beam.Create([1]) | beam.FlatMap( c.calculate_prediction, pvalue.AsSingleton(options), pvalue.AsIter(fullcbs_without_extra_dimension), pvalue.AsSingleton(num_customers), pvalue.AsSingleton(num_txns) ) # [customer_id, p_alive, predicted_purchases, future_aov, # historical_aov, expected_value, frequency, recency, # total_time_observed], prediction_params ) prediction_by_customer_no_segments_no_extra_dimension = ( prediction | beam.FlatMap(lambda x: x[0]) # Extract predictions by customer ) prediction_by_customer_no_segments = ( prediction_by_customer_no_segments_no_extra_dimension | beam.FlatMap( c.add_top_extra_dimension_to_fullcbs, pvalue.AsSingleton(options), pvalue.AsDict(customer_dimension_map) ) # [customer_id, p_alive, predicted_purchases, future_aov # historical_aov, expected_value, frequency, recency, # total_time_observed, extra_dimension?] ) _ = ( prediction | beam.Map(lambda x: x[1]) # Extract prediction params | 'Write to prediction_params table' >> io.WriteToBigQuery( table=c.TableValueProvider( getattr(runtime_options, c._OPTION_OUTPUT_BQ_PROJECT), getattr(runtime_options, c._OPTION_OUTPUT_BQ_DATASET), 'prediction_params' ), custom_gcs_temp_location=getattr(runtime_options, c._OPTION_TEMP_GCS_LOCATION), validate=False, schema={ 'fields': [ {'name': 'prediction_period', 'type': 'INTEGER'}, {'name': 'prediction_period_unit', 'type': 'STRING'}, {'name': 'model_time_granularity', 'type': 'STRING'}, {'name': 'customers_modeled', 'type': 'INTEGER'}, {'name': 'transactions_observed', 'type': 'INTEGER'}, {'name': 'frequency_model', 'type': 'STRING'}, {'name': 'bgnbd_model_params', 'type': 'RECORD', 'fields': [ {'name': 'a', 'type': 'FLOAT'}, {'name': 'b', 'type': 'FLOAT'}, {'name': 'r', 'type': 'FLOAT'}, {'name': 'alpha', 'type': 'FLOAT'} ]}, {'name': 'bgbb_model_params', 'type': 'RECORD', 'fields': [ {'name': 'alpha', 'type': 'FLOAT'}, {'name': 'beta', 'type': 'FLOAT'}, {'name': 'gamma', 'type': 'FLOAT'}, {'name': 'delta', 'type': 'FLOAT'} ]}, {'name': 'paretonbd_model_params', 'type': 'RECORD', 'fields': [ {'name': 'r', 'type': 'FLOAT'}, {'name': 's', 'type': 'FLOAT'}, {'name': 'alpha', 'type': 'FLOAT'}, {'name': 'beta', 'type': 'FLOAT'} ]}, {'name': 'gamma_gamma_params', 'type': 'RECORD', 'fields': [ {'name': 'p', 'type': 'FLOAT'}, {'name': 'q', 'type': 'FLOAT'}, {'name': 'v', 'type': 'FLOAT'} ]} ] }, write_disposition=io.BigQueryDisposition.WRITE_TRUNCATE, create_disposition=io.BigQueryDisposition.CREATE_IF_NEEDED) ) num_rows = ( full_elog_merged | 'Count num rows in full elog merged' >> beam.combiners.Count.Globally() ) segment_predictions_exact = ( pipeline | 'Create single elem Stream VII' >> beam.Create([1]) | beam.FlatMap(lambda _, rows_count: [ rows_count <= c._SEGMENT_PREDICTION_THRESHOLD], pvalue.AsSingleton(num_rows)) ) sharded_cust_predictions_no_segments_exact, \ sharded_cust_predictions_no_segments_hash = ( prediction_by_customer_no_segments | beam.FlatMap( c.prediction_sharded, pvalue.AsSingleton(options), pvalue.AsSingleton(segment_predictions_exact) ) # [customer_id, p_alive, predicted_purchases, future_aov, # historical_aov, expected_value, frequency, recency, # total_time_observed, extra_dimension?] | beam.Partition(lambda x, _: 0 if x[1] else 1, 2) ) # BEGIN of "exact" branch prediction_by_customer_exact = ( pipeline | 'Create single elem Stream VIII' >> beam.Create([1]) | beam.FlatMap(c.split_in_ntiles_exact, pvalue.AsSingleton(options), pvalue.AsIter( sharded_cust_predictions_no_segments_exact) ) # [customer_id, p_alive, predicted_purchases, # future_aov, historical_aov, expected_value, # frequency, recency, total_time_observed, # segment, extra_dimension?] ) # END of "exact" branch # BEGIN of "hash" branch customer_count_by_expected_value = ( sharded_cust_predictions_no_segments_hash | beam.Map(lambda x: (x[0][5], 1)) # (expected_value, 1) | 'Group customer predictions by expected value' >> beam.GroupByKey() | beam.Map( lambda x: (x[0], sum(x[1]))) # expected_value, customers_count ) hash_segment_limits = ( pipeline | 'Create single elem Stream IX' >> beam.Create([1]) | beam.FlatMap(c.expected_values_segment_limits, pvalue.AsSingleton(options), pvalue.AsIter(customer_count_by_expected_value), pvalue.AsSingleton(all_customer_ids_count)) ) prediction_by_customer_hash = ( sharded_cust_predictions_no_segments_hash | beam.Map(lambda x: x[0]) | beam.FlatMap(c.split_in_ntiles_hash, pvalue.AsSingleton(hash_segment_limits) ) # [customer_id, p_alive, predicted_purchases, # future_aov, historical_aov, expected_value, # frequency, recency, total_time_observed, # segment, extra_dimension?] ) # END of "hash" branch prediction_by_customer = ( # only one of these two streams will contains values (prediction_by_customer_exact, prediction_by_customer_hash) | beam.Flatten() | beam.Map(c.clean_nan_and_inf) ) _ = ( prediction_by_customer | beam.FlatMap(lambda x, opts: [x + ['']] if not opts[c._OPTION_EXTRA_DIMENSION_EXISTS] else [x], pvalue.AsSingleton(options)) | 'prediction_by_customer to Dict' >> beam.Map(c.list_to_dict, [ 'customer_id', 'p_alive', 'predicted_purchases', 'future_aov', 'historical_aov', 'expected_value', 'frequency', 'recency', 'total_time_observed', 'segment', 'extra_dimension']) | 'Write to prediction_by_customer table' >> io.WriteToBigQuery( table=c.TableValueProvider( getattr(runtime_options, c._OPTION_OUTPUT_BQ_PROJECT), getattr(runtime_options, c._OPTION_OUTPUT_BQ_DATASET), 'prediction_by_customer' ), custom_gcs_temp_location=getattr(runtime_options, c._OPTION_TEMP_GCS_LOCATION), validate=False, schema='customer_id:STRING, p_alive:FLOAT64' ', predicted_purchases:FLOAT64' ', future_aov:FLOAT64, historical_aov:FLOAT64' ', expected_value:FLOAT64, frequency:INT64' ', recency:FLOAT64' ', total_time_observed:FLOAT64, segment:INT64' ', extra_dimension:STRING', write_disposition=io.BigQueryDisposition.WRITE_TRUNCATE, create_disposition=io.BigQueryDisposition.CREATE_IF_NEEDED) ) prediction_summary_temp = ( prediction_by_customer | beam.Map(lambda x: (x[9], x)) # key: segment | 'Group customer predictions by segment' >> beam.GroupByKey() | beam.FlatMap(c.generate_prediction_summary, pvalue.AsSingleton(options) ) # (segment, average_retention_probability, # average_predicted_customer_value, # average_predicted_order_value, # average_predicted_purchases, total_customer_value, # number_of_customers) ) tot_equity = ( prediction_summary_temp | beam.Map(lambda x: x[5]) # total_customer_value | beam.CombineGlobally(sum) ) prediction_summary = ( prediction_summary_temp | beam.FlatMap( c.calculate_perc_of_total_customer_value, pvalue.AsSingleton(tot_equity), pvalue.AsSingleton(options) ) # (segment, average_retention_probability, # average_predicted_customer_value, # average_predicted_order_value, # average_predicted_purchases, # total_customer_value, number_of_customers, # perc_of_total_customer_value) ) _ = ( prediction_summary | 'prediction_summary to Dict' >> beam.Map(c.list_to_dict, [ 'segment', 'average_retention_probability', 'average_predicted_customer_value', 'average_predicted_order_value', 'average_predicted_purchases', 'total_customer_value', 'number_of_customers', 'perc_of_total_customer_value']) | 'Write to prediction_summary table' >> io.WriteToBigQuery( table=c.TableValueProvider( getattr(runtime_options, c._OPTION_OUTPUT_BQ_PROJECT), getattr(runtime_options, c._OPTION_OUTPUT_BQ_DATASET), 'prediction_summary' ), custom_gcs_temp_location=getattr(runtime_options, c._OPTION_TEMP_GCS_LOCATION), validate=False, schema='segment:INT64 ,average_retention_probability:FLOAT64' ', average_predicted_customer_value:FLOAT64' ', average_predicted_order_value:FLOAT64' ', average_predicted_purchases:FLOAT64' ', total_customer_value:FLOAT64' ', number_of_customers:FLOAT64' ', perc_of_total_customer_value:FLOAT64', write_disposition=io.BigQueryDisposition.WRITE_TRUNCATE, create_disposition=io.BigQueryDisposition.CREATE_IF_NEEDED) ) prediction_summary_extra_dimension = ( prediction_by_customer | 'Discard prediction if there is not extra dimension' >> beam.FlatMap(c.discard_if_no_extra_dimension, pvalue.AsSingleton(options)) | beam.Map(lambda x: (x[10], x)) # extra dimension | 'Group customer predictions by extra dimension' >> beam.GroupByKey() | beam.FlatMap(c.generate_prediction_summary_extra_dimension, pvalue.AsSingleton(tot_equity), pvalue.AsSingleton(options)) ) _ = ( prediction_summary_extra_dimension | 'prediction_summary_extra_dimension to Dict' >> beam.Map(c.list_to_dict, [ 'extra_dimension', 'average_retention_probability', 'average_predicted_customer_value', 'average_predicted_order_value', 'average_predicted_purchases', 'total_customer_value', 'number_of_customers', 'perc_of_total_customer_value']) | 'Write to prediction_summary_extra_dimension table' >> io.WriteToBigQuery( table=c.TableValueProvider( getattr(runtime_options, c._OPTION_OUTPUT_BQ_PROJECT), getattr(runtime_options, c._OPTION_OUTPUT_BQ_DATASET), 'prediction_summary_extra_dimension' ), custom_gcs_temp_location=getattr(runtime_options, c._OPTION_TEMP_GCS_LOCATION), validate=False, schema='extra_dimension:STRING' ', average_retention_probability:FLOAT64' ', average_predicted_customer_value:FLOAT64' ', average_predicted_order_value:FLOAT64' ', average_predicted_purchases:FLOAT64' ', total_customer_value:FLOAT64' ', number_of_customers:INT64' ', perc_of_total_customer_value:FLOAT64', write_disposition=io.BigQueryDisposition.WRITE_TRUNCATE, create_disposition=io.BigQueryDisposition.CREATE_IF_NEEDED) ) if __name__ == '__main__': logging.getLogger().setLevel(logging.INFO) run()